减税降费、经济增长与财政压力

Tax and Fee Reduction, Economic Growth and Fiscal Pressure

减税降费是供给侧结构性改革的重要内容。减税降费在促进经济增长的同时,也带来了一定的地方财政收支压力。基于固定效应模型,本文对我国29个省份减税降费的经济增长效应和财政收入效应分别进行测算。研究发现:第一,实施减税降费政策总体而言促进了经济增长,但存在明显的地区差异:东部地区和中部地区经济增长效应显著,但对东北和西部地区没有显著影响。第二,减税降费政策的实施对地方财政收入增长具有明显的抑制作用。因此,减税降费政策的完善,不仅应兼顾经济增长效应和财政收入效应,还应考虑各地区不同的经济发展状况。在保持宏观税负稳定的前提下,实施结构性减税,进一步深化分税制改革,健全地方税体系;规范转移支付,增加地方政府可支配财力。

As an important part of supply-side structural reform, cutting taxes and fees aren’t only promote economic growth, but also bring certain pressure on local fiscal revenue and expenditure. Based on the fixed effect model, this paper calculates the economic growth effect and fiscal revenue effect of tax and fee reduction in 29 provinces of China respectively. The findings show that, firstly, the implementation of cutting taxes and fees policies have generally promoted economic growth, but there are regional differences: the economic growth effect in the eastern and central regions is significant, but it has no significant impact on the northeast and western regions. Secondly, the implementation of the tax and fee reduction policy has significant inhibitory effect on the growth of local fiscal revenue. Therefore, the improvement of cutting taxes and fees policies should not only take into account the economic growth effect and fiscal effect, but also different economic development situations in different regions. Under the premise of maintaining the stability of macro tax burden, structural tax cuts should be implemented. What’s more, it should deepen the reform of tax-sharing financial management system and establish a sound local tax system, regulate transfer payments and increase the disposable financial resources of local governments.