马尔维纳斯群岛海域阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的灰色灾变预测

Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance index of Illex angentinus in the waters near Malvinas Islands

阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex angentinus)为大洋性浅海种,为世界重要经济种类,其中马尔维纳斯群岛海域是阿根廷滑柔鱼的重要渔场之一。阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度极易受到海洋环境变化的影响,年间产量波动较为明显。为此,根据1995—2019年马尔维纳斯群岛阿根廷滑柔鱼渔业生产数据,以单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort, CPUE)表征阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,对其未来的资源丰度丰歉年份进行预测。结果表明,阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度丰年(CPUE大于1615t/船)将发生在2021、2028和2038年,资源丰度歉年(CPUE小于784t/船)将发生在2024、2029和2036年;丰年灾变模型的平均相对误差为16.212%,平均级比偏差为0.193,歉年灾变模型的平均相对误差为35.656%,平均级比偏差为0.199,模型的精度检验等级均为Ⅰ级。研究认为,灰色灾变预测模型较好地模拟了阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度变化的年份,其预测结果可为阿根廷滑柔鱼鱿钓生产与管理提供参考。

Illex argentinus is a short-lived cephalopod species, which is also a commercially important species in the world. The Malvinas Islands is one of the important fishing grounds for Illex argentinus. The abundance of Illex argentinus is highly susceptible to marine environmental changes and has large interannual fluctuations. According to the statistical data of Illex argentinus in the Malvinas Islands from 1995 to 2019, annual catch per fishing vessel(CPUE) was derived as an abundance index, and the gray catastrophe prediction GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future years of the Illex argentinus. The results showed that the upper years catastrophic year would occur in the years of 2021, 2028 and 2038(CPUE≥1615 t per fishing vessel), and the lower catastrophe year would occur in the years of 2024, 2029 and 2036(CPUE≤784 t per fishing vessel). Theoretically, the average relative error of the disaster model in rich years is 16.212%, the value of level deviation is 0.193, while the average relative error of the disaster model in poor years is 35.656%, and the value of level deviation is 0.199. The accuracy test for both models attain the level Ⅰ accuracy. According to the results, the grey catastrophe prediction model can simulate the years of abundance variation of Illex argentinus, and the prediction results can provide reference for the production and management of the species.