长江中游城市群新冠肺炎疫情时空演变特征及影响因素研究

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of COVID-19 in Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情发生后,长江中游城市群作为全国最重要的城市群发展战略区域之一,所受影响最为显著在全球疫情仍在肆虐的当下,为探究疫情重灾区城市群疫情时空演变规律,文章通过搜集整理长江中游城市群2020年典型时段疫情统计数据以及路网交通与经济社会等数据,利用GIS可视化、空间自相关等方法分析新冠肺炎疫情动态变化过程与空间演变特征,并综合运用主成分分析和多元线性回归模型,系统分析城市群疫情发展演变的主要影响因素及机制研究结果表明:(1)长江中游城市群新冠肺炎累计确诊病例总数呈现S型变化态势,先后经历缓慢上升、快速上升和逐步放缓3个阶段,之后疫情总体由紧急防控阶段转入常态化防控阶段,(2)城市群新冠肺炎发病率空间差异显著,累计确诊病例数呈“一主多次”、由北至南分层级扩散的空间分布及演变格局,新增病例地理分布经历先快速蔓延后逐步缩小的阶段性变化。(3)城市群新冠肺炎发病率和疫情受人为干预初期的累计确诊病例数具有较显著的空间自相关性。

After the outbreak of COVID-19,the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,as one of the most important development strategic regions in China,was most significantly affected.In order to explore the temporal and spatial evolution law of the epidemic situation in urban agglomerations,this paper collects and sorts out the epidemic statistics of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020 and the data of road network traffic and economic and social development,and uses GIS and other methods to analyze the dynamic change process and spatial evolution characteristics of the epidemic situation.Using principal component analysis and multiple linear regression model,this paper systematically analyzes the main influencing factors and mechanisms of the epidemic evolution of study area.The results showed that:(1)The total number of COVID-19 cases in the study area showed a S-shaped change trend,which experienced three stages:slow rise,rapid rise and gradual slowdown.After that,the overall epidemic situation changed from emergency prevention and control stage to normalization prevention and control stage.(2)The spatial difference in the incidence of the epidemic in urban agglomerations was significant.The cumulative number of confirmed cases showed a spatial distribution and evolution pattern of hierarchical diffusion from north to south.The geographical distribution of new cases experienced a phased change of rapid spread first and then gradually narrowing.(3)The incidence of COVID-19 in urban agglomerations has a significant spatial autocorrelation,as does the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the early stage of human intervention.(4)The influencing factors of urban agglomeration epidemic evolution mainly include population density,economy and income level,public health conditions,administrative divisions and prevention and control interventions.Affected by the epidemic spreading stage and cross-regional population flow control,the regression coefficient of spatial distance is significantly reduced.Strong measures should be taken mainly from strict control of disease transmission channels and strengthening the ability of medical and health,and comprehensive coordination and long-term mechanism should be constructed.At the same time,prevention and control measures and risk control standards should be optimized and improved,and the epidemic prevention and control should be scientific and accurate.