通信与交通基础设施通达性与普及度评估与比较——基于熵值法与门槛模型的研究

Evaluation and Comparison of Accessibility and Popularity of Communication and Transportation Infrastructure——Research Based on Entropy Method and Threshold Model

本文利用2001—2019年中国省级面板数据,基于通达性与普及度双视角,使用熵值法对省级地区、八大经济区域通信与交通基础设施进行评分、排名和比较,在此基础上运用门槛模型分析两类基础设施的通达性、普及度对地区经济的影响及其门槛效应。结果表明:全国层面,强运力、较先进的通信与交通基础设施通达性及普及度逐步提升,但部分省区通信与交通基础设施存在供需失衡;八大经济区通信与交通基础设施通达性的区域差距不断扩大,而普及度趋向空间均衡;通信基础设施发挥经济作用受到本地交通基础设施通达与普及程度的影响。因此,我国应高度重视地区通信与交通基础设施的供需偏差;在需求分布趋于均衡的背景下,加大薄弱地区相应基础设施建设力度,缩小基础设施通达性的空间差距;明确未来基础设施的需求热点与发展脉络,推动两类基础设施的同步规划和统筹建设。

This paper uses China’s provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019,based on the dual perspectives of infrastructure accessibility and popularity, and uses the entropy method to score, rank and compare the communication and transportation infrastructure of provincial regions and eight major economic areas.The threshold panel model is used to analyze the influence of the accessibility and popularity of the two types of infrastructure on the regional economy and their threshold effect.The results show that: from the national prospective, the accessibility and popularity of high-capacity, high-advanced communication and transportation infrastructure continue to improve, but there is an imbalance between supply and demand in communication and transportation infrastructure in some provinces;the regional gap continues to widen while the popularity score of the communication and transportation infrastructure tends to be balanced across regions;the economic role of communication infrastructure is affected by the accessibility and popularity of regional transportation infrastructure.Therefore, China should attach great importance to the deviation of supply and demand of regional communication and transportation infrastructure;under the background of balanced demand distribution, it is necessary to increase the investment and construction of corresponding infrastructure in weak areas, and to narrow the regional gap in accessibility;we should make demand hotspots and development context of infrastructure more clear, and promote the simultaneous planning and construction of communication and transportation infrastructure.