产业结构变迁、互联网发展与全要素生产率提升

Industrial Structure Change, Internet Development and Improvement of Total Factor Productivity

本文基于2006—2017年我国省级面板数据,采用Malmquist指数法测算全要素生产率,从产业结构变迁的两个维度——产业结构合理化和高级化出发,讨论了互联网发展背景下产业结构变迁对全要素生产率的影响。分析发现:产业结构高级化和互联网发展均对全要素生产率具有正向促进作用,但产业结构合理化的作用相反。产业结构变迁与互联网发展的交互作用能够促进全要素生产率的提升,但该促进作用存在显著的互联网门限效应,即只有互联网发展到一定水平时,产业结构变迁与互联网的交互作用对全要素生产率的影响才由负转正,并在互联网发展水平提高时进一步增强。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2006 to 2017,this paper uses Malmquist index method to measure total factor productivity.Starting from two dimensions of rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, this paper discusses the impact of industrial structure change on total factor productivity in the context of Internet development.The results show that: The upgrading of industrial structure and the development of Internet have positive effects on TFP,but the rationalization of industrial structure has opposite effect.The interaction of industrial structure change and Internet development can exert a positive effect on promoting the increase in total factor productivity, but the threshold effect of the Internet plays a significant role in the promoting effect.Only when it reaches to a certain Internet development level does the effect on total factor productivity change from negative to positive, and it will be further enhanced when the Internet develops at a high level.