贸易便利化、空间溢出与增加值贸易网络地位——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的社会网络与空间计量分析

Trade Facilitation, Spatial Spillover and Value Added Trade Network Status——Social Network and Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Countries Along the “Belt and Road”

本文基于UNCTAD-Eora增加值贸易数据,采用社会网络分析法评价了2003—2018年“一带一路”沿线国家增加值贸易网络地位演变情况,在此基础上运用空间杜宾模型考察了沿线国家贸易便利化及其空间溢出对增加值贸易网络地位的影响。结果表明:沿线国家增加值贸易网络联系趋于紧密,已形成以新加坡、中国、马来西亚和俄罗斯为核心且结构稳定的“多极化”分布格局;沿线各国增加值贸易网络地位呈现少数高、多数低的非匀质分布,相对地位变动具有阶段性特征。沿线国家贸易便利化既会直接促进本国增加值贸易网络地位提升,也会通过空间溢出促成邻近国家贸易便利化,从而间接更强积极影响本国网络地位。进一步进行异质性分析发现,贸易便利化直接与间接效应在不同国家和不同时段呈现明显异质性,其中相比于高网络地位国家,低网络地位国家贸易便利化直接促进作用更为明显;制度环境与海关环境便利化的直接与间接促进作用强于物理基础设施、商业规制和电子商务。

Promoting trade facilitation and eliminating trade barriers in the countries along the route is an important part of the“One Belt, One Road”(B&R)construction.Based on UNCTAD-Eora value-added trade data, this paper evaluates the evolution of the value-added trade network status of the countries along the B&R from 2003 to 2018 by using social network analysis, and on this basis, we examines the impact of trade facilitation and its spatial spillover on the value-added trade network status of the countries along the B&R by using the Spatial Durbin Model.The results show that: the value-added trade networks of the countries along the route tend to be more closely connected, and a“multi-polar”distribution pattern has been formed with Singapore, China and Malaysia as the core and stable structure;the distribution of the status of the value-added trade networks of the countries along the route is not homogeneous, but shows a“power law”characteristics.The trade facilitation of the countries along the route will not only directly promote the status of their own value-added trade networks, but also contribute to the trade facilitation of neighboring countries through spatial spillover, thus indirectly and more positively affecting the status of their own networks.The heterogeneity analysis finds that the direct and indirect effects of trade facilitation show significant heterogeneity across countries and over time, with the direct contribution of trade facilitation being more pronounced in low network status countries compared to high network status countries.The direct and indirect contribution of institutional and customs environment facilitation is stronger than physical infrastructure, business regulation and e-commerce.