住房金融化对重点城市金融风险的传导机制研究

Study on the Transmission Mechanism of Housing Financialization to Financial Risk in Key Cities

近年我国一些重点城市在住房领域的泡沫化、金融化倾向较为严重,住房金融化会通过银行偿付能力、土地投资和金融工具三个传导渠道对重点城市形成金融风险。通过编制全国70个重点城市的金融风险指数,使用双向固定效应模型进行检验,结果发现:重点城市的房地产杠杆率与金融风险指数之间呈先降后升的U型关系,杠杆率的拐点值约为74%,三个传导渠道对金融风险的影响均显著。应进一步推动重点城市房地产企业去杠杆、严控住房金融化可能带来的金融风险传染效应、继续落实“房住不炒”的调控基调。

In recent years,the tendency of housing bubble and financialization in some key cities in China has been more serious.Housing financialization will result in financial risks to key cities through three transmission channels,including bank solvency,land investment and financial instruments.Through compiling the financial risk index of 70 key cities and using the two-way fixed effects model to test,the results show that the relationship between the leverage ratio of the real estate and financial risk index in key cities is u-shaped,and the inflection point value of the leverage ratio is about 74%.All of the three transmission channels make significant influence on financial risk.We need to further promote deleveraging of the real estate enterprises in key cities,strictly control the financial risk contagion effect of housing financialization,and continue to implement the regulation that " housing is for living in,not for speculation".