融合还是分立:全球经济治理制度变迁的逻辑

Integration or Separation:The Logic of Institutional Change in Global Economic Governance

在新技术革命、新冠肺炎疫情等外部冲击下,国家行为体的权力、利益、观念等结构性变化驱动全球经济治理制度加速变迁。中美两国是最重要的国家行为体,代表制度整合和制度分立两股力量,双方的制度博弈将决定全球经济治理制度变迁的方向。未来,真正的多边主义与伪多边主义、全球化和逆全球化、霸权和反霸权将在国际舞台上不断角力,全球经济治理制度网络将呈现复杂性增强和区域化增进的特征。面对中美两国的制度差异,需要承认制度多样性,提升制度包容性,才能深入推进全球经济治理体系改革。

Under the external shocks of the new technological revolution and COVID-19,the structural changes in the actor’s power,the interests and the concepts of a country drive the acceleration of institutional change in global economic governance. China and the United States are the most important institutional actors,representing the two forces of institutional integration and institutional separation. The institutional game between the two sides will determine the direction of institutional change in global economic governance. In the future,multilateralism and pseudo-multilateralism,globalization and anti-globalization,hegemony and anti-hegemony will continue to struggle on the international stage. Institutional network of global economic governance will present the characteristics of increasing complexity and regionalization. In the face of institutional differences between China and the United States,we need to recognize institutional diversity and enhance institutional inclusiveness,so as to further advance the reform of global economic governance.