土地供给如何影响产能过剩:机制与检验

How Does the Land Supply Structure Affect Overcapacity?The Mechanism and Tests

土地要素市场扭曲是导致工业产能过剩的重要原因。文章分析了土地供给结构对产能过剩的作用机制,并运用我国城市数据和动态空间杜宾模型实证检验了土地供给结构对工业产能过剩的影响及空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)我国高工业用地比例、低居住用地比例的土地供给结构加剧了工业产能过剩,并且存在显著的空间溢出效应。(2)土地供给结构所引发的房价水平高涨与技术创新偏向进一步加剧了工业产能过剩,而出口贸易则有利于改善土地供给结构对工业产能过剩化解的负面影响。(3)土地供给结构对中西部地区的工业产能过剩存在明显的促进效应与空间溢出效应,而对东部地区工业产能过剩的影响及空间溢出效应并不显著。上述研究结论意味着,优化土地供给结构是化解我国工业产能过剩的重要途径。

The distortion of the land market is an important cause of industrial overcapacity. This paper analyzes how the land supply structure impact overcapacity, and empirically tests the impact of the land supply structure on industrial overcapacity and spatial spillover effects with a dynamic spatial Durbin model based on the data from China’s cities. The paper finds that:(1) The land supply structure with a high proportion of industrial land and a low proportion of residential land has aggravated industrial overcapacity, and there is a significant spatial spillover effect.(2) The high housing prices and technological innovation bias triggered by the land supply structure have further aggravated industrial overcapacity, while export is conducive to reversing the negative impact of the land supply structure on resolving industrial overcapacity.(3) The land supply structure has obvious promotion effects and spatial spillover effects on industrial overcapacity in the central and western regions, while the impact and spatial spillover effects on industrial overcapacity in the eastern region are not significant. The above research conclusions mean that improving the land supply structure is an important way to resolve industrial overcapacity in China.