技术变革与人口转型——自动化替代对劳动者二孩生育意愿的影响

Technological Change and Demographic Transition:The Effect of Automation Replacement on Workers’ Willingness to Have a Second Child

中国已步入低生育国家行列,并处于经济产业智能化的重要转型期。文章使用2017年CGSS调查数据,构建了反映职业常规任务强度的指标,用以表征劳动者面临的职业自动化替代风险,并且采用二分类逻辑斯蒂回归验证自动化替代对二孩生育意愿的影响效应。研究发现,职业的自动化替代会抑制劳动者的二孩生育意愿。与非常规任务群体相比,更容易被自动化替代的常规任务群体的二孩生育意愿更低。自动化替代的抑制效应在社会经济地位较高、住房面积较小的劳动者群体中更加明显。上述发现丰富了学界对二孩生育意愿在经济产业智能化转型时期生成机制的多元理解,拓展了经典生育成本路径在技术变革背景下的应用。

China has become a low-fertility country and experienced an intelligent transformation of economic industries. Based on the data of CGSS(2017), this article constructs the routine task intensity index to capture automation replacement risk. It uses binary logistic regression to verify the effect of automation replacement on workers’ willingness to have a second child. This article finds that automation replacement risk inhibits workers’ willingness to have a second child. Compared with groups with non-routine tasks, groups with routine tasks are less willing to have a second child. The inhibitory effect of automation replacement risk is stronger among workers with higher social and economic status and smaller houses. This article enriches the understanding of the willingness to have a second child during the intelligent transformation of economic industries. It also expands the classic income-cost path under the backdrop of technological change.