城乡居民收入差距对城镇化影响的地区差异及动态演进

Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of the Impact of the Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents

研究目标:对比城乡居民收入差距对常住人口城镇化与户籍人口城镇化影响的地区差异,从动态演进中探索城镇化优化的人口模式。研究方法:运用刘易斯二元经济理论与托达罗模型建立了面板数据空间杜宾模型进行实证分析。研究发现:在样本期内,无论是常住人口城镇化还是户籍人口城镇化,其空间格局均存在地区不平衡现象,相对而言,常住人口城镇化在空间集聚的外溢性、城乡居民收入差距以及城镇化基础经济水平的平衡性等方面具有更好的空间优化条件,提高农业转移人口市民化目前对城镇化的空间优化只能发挥稳定、润滑作用;从动态发展趋势判断,东中部地区的农业转移人口以常住性流入城市、西部地区以户籍性流入城市,能够更好地促进东中部地区常住人口城镇化的空间溢出效应形成,同时借助户籍人口城镇化的润滑平衡作用形成东西部夹击态势,有望促成我国常住人口城镇化高水平空间格局的优化。研究创新:将户籍人口城镇化引入城乡居民收入差距与城镇化关系研究中,既拓展了现有城乡居民收入差距与城镇化关系的研究内容,也凸显了农业转移人口市民化在新型城镇化空间格局优化中的效应。研究价值:通过对比分析以及模型模拟,了解到“十四五”时期我国城乡居民收入差距缩小的条件下,常住人口城镇化与户籍人口城镇化空间格局演化的不同区位效应,为不同地区在新型城镇化建设任务中处理城乡居民收入差距、农业转移人口市民化及优化城镇化空间格局的关系提供一定参考信息。

Research Objectives: Compared with the regional differences of the impact of the income gap between urban and rural residents on the urbanization of permanent residents and the urbanization of the registered population, and will explore the population model of urbanization optimization from the dynamic evolution. Research Methods: Using the Lewis dual economic theory and the Todaro model, this paper establishes a panel data space Durbin model for empirical analysis. Research Findings: During the sample period, whether the resident population is permanent or registered in urbanization, there are regional imbalances in the spatial pattern, relatively speaking, the urbanization of permanent residents has better spatial optimization conditions in terms of the spillover of spatial agglomeration, the income gap between urban and rural residents and the balance of the basic economic level of urbanization, at present, the spatial optimization of urbanization can only play a stable and lubricating role;Judging from the dynamic development trend, the agricultural transfer population in the eastern and central regions flows into cities with permanent population and western regions with registered population can better promote the formation of the spatial spillover effect of the urbanization of the resident population in the eastern and central regions, at the same time, with the help of the lubrication and balance of the urbanization of the registered population, the east and the west will be attacked, which is expected to promote my country’s optimization of high-level spatial pattern of permanent population urbanization. Research Innovations: Introducing the urbanization of registered population into the research on the relationship between urban-rural residents’ income gap and urbanization, it not only expands the research contents on the relationship between urban-rural residents’ income gap and urbanization, but also highlights the effect of urbanization of registered residence on the optimization of the spatial pattern of new urbanization.Research Value: Through comparative analysis and model simulation, it is understood that under the condition of narrowing the urban-rural residents’ income gap in China during the 14 th Five-Year plan period. It provides certain reference information for different regions to deal with the income gap between urban and rural residents, the rural migrant population and optimize the spatial pattern of urbanization in the task of new urbanization construction.