绿色技术创新促进碳生产率提高的作用机制——基于工业结构升级、循环农业发展和交通运输替代的中介效应分析

Impact Mechanism of Green Technology Innovation on Carbon Productivity Promotion:Based on the Mediating Effect Analysis of Industrial Structure Upgrading,Circular Agriculture Development and Transportation Substitution

探究我国绿色技术创新对行业碳生产率的影响及其空间集聚性及溢出效应。选取2000—2019年我国30个省份的面板数据构建空间杜宾模型,运用多重中介效应模型剖析绿色技术创新通过工业结构升级、循环农业发展和交通运输替代3个中介变量对碳生产率产生影响的传导机制。结果表明:(1)各省份碳生产率空间自相关,且有“东高西低、南高北低”的分布特点;(2)绿色技术创新对本地碳生产率有显著促进作用,溢出效应不显著;(3)3个中介变量占总效应从大到小依次为工业结构升级>交通运输替代>循环农业发展,循环农业发展与交通运输替代、工业结构升级产生的中介作用不同,但交通运输替代与工业结构升级二者的中介作用不存在差异。

Exploring the influence of green technology innovation on industrial carbon productivity and its spatial agglomeration and spillover effect, this paper selects panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019 to construct a spatial Durbin model, uses multiple intermediary effect model to analyze the transmission mechanism of green technology innovation on carbon productivity through industrial structure upgrading, circular agriculture development and transportation replacement. The results show that:(1) The carbon productivity of China’s 30 provinces has the characteristics of self-correlated, and it is higher in the east and the south China, lower in the west and the north China.(2) Green technology innovation has a significant role in promoting local carbon productivity, but the spillover effect is not significant.(3) The descending order of the three intermediary variables concerning ratio of total effect is: industrial structure upgrading> transportation substitution> circular agriculture development, the development of circular agriculture has different intermediary roles arising from transportation substitution and industrial structure upgrading, but the mediating role of transportation substitution and industrial structure upgrading is similar.