基于DPSIR的长三角大气污染治理效果评估及影响因素研究

On the Effect Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Air Pollution Control in the Yangtze River Delta Based on the DPSIR

准确把握长三角区域大气污染治理效果,对于加快长三角生态绿色一体化进程和实现高质量发展目标具有重要意义。通过构建“驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应”(DPSIR)多维评估指标体系,以长三角区域41个城市最新面板数据为样本,运用主成分分析方法(PCA)测量和评估长三角区域大气污染治理效果,采用广义最小二乘法(GLS)修正多元回归模型可能存在的自相关和异方差问题,探究影响长三角区域大气污染治理效果的关键因素。结果表明:(1)样本考察期内,长三角区域大气污染治理效果综合指数呈“先降后升”的动态变化趋势,并聚类为五个类别,区域非均衡性特征显著,省级层面上,浙江大气污染治理效果综合指数最大、安徽最小、上海和江苏居中;(2)子系统指数大小次序为:压力指数>驱动力指数>响应指数>状态指数>影响指数,且长三角区域大气污染治理呈现压力逐年上升(2018年转为下降)、驱动力逐年下降、响应水平平稳增强、污染状态“波浪式”升降和影响力逐步扩大的差异化演变特征;(3)科技创新、对外开放、经济发展、环境保护税占比与财政自给率的交互项等均能提升大气污染治理效果,而环境保护税占财政收入比重、财政自给率、废气治理设施数、工业化水平、人口密度的作用相反。实证结论对明确长三角大气污染协同治理路径,提升治理效果具有重要的政策启示。

It was of great significance to have a good understanding of the effect of air pollution control in the Yangtze River Delta region for accelerating the ecological and green integration and achieving the goal of high-quality development. Based on the multi-dimensional evaluation index system of “Driving forcePressure-State-Impact-Response”(DPSIR),taking the latest panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region as samples,this paper employed the principal component analysis method(PCA) to measure and evaluate the effect of the air pollution control in the Yangtze River Delta region and the generalized least squares method(GLS)to correct the possible autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of the multiple regression model,thus exploring the key factors affecting the effect of air pollution control in the Yangtze River Delta region. The results were shown as follows:(1) During the sample investigation period,the comprehensive index of air pollution control effect in the Yangtze River Delta showed a dynamic trend of “first falling and then rising”,and was clustered into five categories featured with significant regional imbalance. At the provincial level,Zhejiang province was the largest,Anhui province was the smallest,and Shanghai city and Jiangsu province were in the middle in terms of the comprehensive index of air pollution control effect.(2) The sequence of subsystem index was like this: pressure index > driving force index > response index > state index > impact index. According to the evolution characteristics of the subsystem,the air pollution control in Yangtze River Delta region showed that the pressure was increasing year by year(turning to decline in 2018),the driving force decreasing year by year,the response level steadily enhanced,the pollution state fluctuating and the impact gradually expanding.(3) Technological innovation,opening to the outside world,economic development,the interaction of proportion of the environmental protection tax and fiscal self-sufficiency rate could all improve the effect of air pollution control. But the proportion of environmental protection tax in fiscal revenue,financial self-sufficiency rate,the number of exhaust gas treatment equipment,industrialization level and population density had the opposite effect. The empirical conclusions would have important policy implications for identifying a coordinated pathway to treat air pollution in the Yangtze River Delta and improving the treatment effect.