船舶冰区航行风险因素识别研究

Study on Identification of Navigation Risk Factors in Ship Ice Area

针对冰区船舶航行面对的影响安全的风险因素辨识问题,本研究提出了冰区船舶航行风险影响因素层次分析法模型。针对船舶冰区航行安全影响因素辨识中面对的复杂性和不确定性,基于综合层次分析法和模糊数及仿真技术,推出了基于仿真层次模糊分析法,并采用此方法辨识冰区船舶航行安全影响因素。从模型和航海专家判断数值两方面对冰区船舶航行安全影响因素辨识研究的科学性和合理性进行分析和验证。结果表明:能见度、风和海水密度是冰区船舶航行安全的主要风险因素。

In order to identify the risk factors affecting the safety of ship navigation in ice area,an analytic hierarchy process model of risk factors affecting ship navigation in ice area is proposed in this study.In view of the complexity and uncertainty in the identification of factors affecting ship navigation safety in ice area,a fuzzy analysis method based on simulation hierarchy process is proposed by combining Analytic hierarchy process(AHP),fuzzy number and simulation technology.this method is used to identify the influencing factors of ship navigation safety in ice area.The scientificalness and rationality of the research on the identification of factors affecting ship navigation safety in ice area are analyzed and verified from two aspects of model and navigation expert value.The results of analysis and verification show that visibility,wind and sea water density are the main risk factors affecting the safety of ship navigation in the ice area.