国内循环与制造业生产率:一般规律、大国特征及中国应对

The Impact of Domestic Cycles on Total Factor Productivity in the Manufacturing Industry:General Rules,Characteristics of Big Countries and China’s Response

加快构建新发展格局、实现高质量发展,是社会主义建设新发展阶段的战略目标。本文基于投入产出模型构建国内循环水平的核算方法及统计指标,重点探讨不同国家的国内循环水平对制造业部门全要素生产率影响的一般规律,并梳理了经济大国尤其是中国的现实特征。研究发现,国内循环通过市场整合效应及要素升级效应很大程度上促进了制造业全要素生产率提升,且该影响在高收入国家、经济大国及高新技术产业的表现尤为明显。相对于国内需求,国内配套能力增强对制造业全要素生产率的提升作用更为显著。得益于产业链齐全的供给配套与潜力巨大的国内市场,中国在构建国内循环、提升制造部门全要素生产率方面具有得天独厚的优势。研究建议,构建新发展格局应更加重视国内市场整合及高级生产要素培育,着眼于从供给端增强国内供给配套能力,在此基础上逐渐提升制造部门尤其是高新技术产业部门的国内循环水平。

This paper studies the role of domestic circulation in economic growth from the perspective of total factor productivity.Firstly,based on the input-output model,the accounting methods and statistical indicators of domestic cycle level are constructed,and then the general law and heterogeneity characteristics of the impact of domestic cycle level on the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry are discussed.It is found that the domestic cycle promotes the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry through the effect of market integration and factor upgrading,and this effect is particularly evident in the high-income countries,major economic countries and high-tech industries.Compared with domestic demand,the enhancement of domestic supporting capacity has a more significant effect on the improvement of total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry.Thanks to the complete supply chain and the huge potential of the domestic market,China has unique advantages in building a domestic cycle to improve the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry.To speed up the construction of a new development pattern,we should pay more attention to the integration of the domestic market and the cultivation of advanced production factors,focus on enhancing the supporting capacity of domestic supply from the supply side,and on this basis,gradually improve the domestic circulation level of the manufacturing industry,especially the high-tech industry.