县域耕地与建设用地冲突协调模型研究

Land Use Conflict Coordination Model Between Cultivated Land and Construction Land in County

聚焦耕地与建设用地冲突情景,基于地理模拟与优化系统(GEOSOS),构建县域耕地与建设用地冲突协调方案:首先,构建耕地与建设用地适宜性评价指标体系,基于人工神经网络训练得到每个土地利用类型对应的适宜性概率;其次,开展耕地与建设用地承载规模评价,以资源限制、空间约束、环境容量等短板要素评价用地的合理规模;最后,将适宜性概率作为土地利用转化规则,合理承载规模作为土地转化量,在GEOSOS开展用地冲突协调模拟。并以浙江长兴县为例,模型经过Kappa系数检验为0.76,能够有效模拟现实情景。对用地冲突协调研究的贡献体现在:1.整合国土空间规划体系中的“双评价”部分成果,促进形成长期有效的用地规模和空间约束;2.从主体利益出发开展土地利用冲突协调,并充分考虑政策因素影响,有利于判断用地发展的合理性和潜在影响;3.通过集成适宜性评价和承载规模评价形成土地利用变化模拟模型,为国土空间规划提供重要依据和技术支持。

Focusing on the conflict between cultivated land and construction land,the conflict coordination scheme of cultivated land and construction land at county level was constructed based on GEOSOS platform.Firstly,the suitability evaluation index system of cultivated land and construction land was constructed,and the suitability probability of each land use type was obtained based on Artificial-Neural-Network training.Then,carrying capac-ity evaluation of cultivated land and construction land was conducted,and the reasonable scale of land use should be evaluated by weak factors such as resource constraint,space constraint and environmental capacity.Finally,with the suitability probability as the land use conversion rule,the reasonable carrying capacity as the land conversion quantity,the land conflict coordination was simulated on GEOSOS.The validation of model showed that the Kappa coefficient was 0.76,which can effectively simulate the real situation.The contribution to the study of land use con-flict coordination is as follows:1.Integrate the results of the suitability evaluation and the carrying capacity evaluation in the territorial spatial planning,and promote the formation of long-term effective land use scale and space constraints.2.The influence of policy factors should be fully considered in the coordination of land use conflict,which is helpful in evaluating the rationality and potential influence of land use development.3.The simulation model of land use change was established through integrated the suitability evalua-tion and the carrying capacity evaluation,which provided important basis and technical support for territorial spatial planning.