产业绿色转型与污染溢出:基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的时空检验

Industry Green Transformation and Pollution Spillover: A Spatial-temporal Test Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve

产业绿色转型是我国实现经济新型工业化与节能减排的重要支撑。目前,产业与环境的动态关系分析已成为产业转型研究热点。文章主要研究基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)视角的产业绿色转型环境效应,并进一步讨论产业绿色转型是否能缓解EKC现象。采用我国2008—2019年的省级样本数据,通过虚拟变量GLS、脉冲响应函数及空间Durbin等模型展开计量研究,回归结果显示:产业绿色转型是东部地区碳排放、三大地区固体废物排放与西部地区废水排放最主要的影响因素;目前产业绿色转型不利于整体碳EKC现象缓解,还需要重点关注高碳排放行业;产业绿色转型显著促进邻省固体废物与整体废水EKC向左移动,提早进入环境改善阶段。

Green transformation of industries is an important support for China to achieve new economic industrialization and energy conservation and emission reduction. At present, the analysis of the dynamic relationship between industry and environment has become the focus of industrial transformation research. This paper mainly studies the environmental effects of industrial green transformation from the perspective of environmental Kuznets curve(EKC), and further discusses whether industrial green transformation can alleviate the EKC phenomenon. Based on China’s provincial sample data from 2008 to 2019, the paper carries out econometric research using dummy variable GLS, impulse response function and spatial Durbin models. The regression results show that industrial green transformation is the most important influencing factor of carbon emission in eastern China, solid waste discharge in the three regions and waste water discharge in western China, that at present, industrial green transformation is not conducive to alleviating the overall carbon EKC phenomenon, thus necessary to focus on industries with high carbon emissions,and that the green industrial transformation significantly promotes the leftward movement of the EKC of solid waste and total wastewater in neighboring provinces, entering the stage of environmental improvement earlier.