中欧班列沿线国家物流绩效对广东进出口贸易的影响分析

Analysis on the Impact of Logistics Performance in the Countries along the China Railway Express on Guangdong Import and Export Trade

2021年,中欧班列累计开行1.5万列,累计发货146万TEU,对沿线国家多边贸易产生了很大的促进作用。以扩展版的重力模型和相关性系数理论基础,2015—2019年中欧班列沿线十国GDP、人均GDP、外贸依存度、运输距离、LPI指数分项指标(通关效率、基础设施、运输便利性、货运及时性、可追溯性、物流服务质量)为面板数据,分析了中欧班列沿线国家国际物流绩效对广东省进出口的影响,结果显示国际物流绩效指数高的国家对广东进出口贸易有显著的正向影响,基础设施、通关效率、货物的追溯性指标的改善有利于扩大沿线国家同广东进出口贸易规模,提升多边贸易中各国在全球经济中的竞争力。

In 2021, it was a total of 15,000 CHINA RAILWAY Express, which had greatly promoted the multilateral trade of countries along the route, is based on an extended version of the gravity model and correlation coefficient theory, and collects data of ten countries along the CHINA RAILWAY Express from 2015 to 2019,including GDP, Per capita GDP, foreign trade dependence, transportation distance, LPI index sub-indices(customs clearance efficiency, infrastructure, transportation convenience, timeliness of shipments,traceability,logistics service quality). It analyzes the impact of international logistics performance of the countries along the CHINA RAILWAY Express on Guangdong’s imports and exports. The results show that countries with high international logistics performance indexes have a significant positive impact on Guangdong’s import and export trade, and improvements in infrastructure, customs clearance efficiency, and cargo traceability indicators are conducive to expanding the scale of import and export trade between countries along the route the and Guangdong province. Meanwhile, It also enhances the competitiveness of countries in multilateral trade in the global economy.