国土空间总体规划温室气体核算模型

Greenhouse gas inventory model for territorial spatial master plans

城市的低碳发展对于应对气候变化及实现我国“碳达峰、碳中和”目标起着至关重要的作用。在新的国土空间规划体系下,国土空间总体规划对城市的低碳发展影响重大。为解决现有的城市温室气体核算中存在的问题,使总体规划促进城市低碳发展,构建了国土空间总体规划温室气体核算模型。该模型基于“空间布局—用地类型—部门划分—模型方法”的框架,采用自上而下与自下而上相结合的方法,与国土空间规划要素紧密结合;建立了市域和中心城区两个层次的碳排放核算方法,并解决了中心城区的碳排放核算问题,可进行国际间比较;解决了总体规划能源预测不完善的问题,提出了不同的核算方法供灵活选择,与完全基于用地类型的方法相比,降低了不确定性。最后基于模型提出了评估总体规划低碳发展水平的核心指标与参考指标。

Low carbon development of cities plays a vital role for coping with climate change and reaching the goal of carbon peak and neutrality of China,which is significantly affected by territorial spatial master plans under the new territorial spatial planning system.In order to solve the problems existing in city greenhouse gas inventories,a greenhouse gas inventory model for territorial spatial master plan is developed in this paper.The model is tightly connected with urban planning,developed under the framework of spatial layout‒land use‒sector classification‒inventory method,combining the method of top-down and bottom-up.Inventory methods for two levels of city area and central city are developed,which solves the greenhouse gas inventory problems of central city,so that international comparisons can be made.Different accounting methods are developed for greenhouse gas inventory to solve the incomplete energy demand forecast in master plan,which reduces the accounting uncertainty,compared with the method totally based on the land use.Base on the model,core indices and assisting indices are put forward to evaluate the low carbon development of territorial spatial master plan.