珠三角地区人口年龄结构演变格局与规划应对

The Population Change and Planning Response in the Pearl River Delta Region

随着社会经济的高速发展,珠三角地区的人口年龄结构不断变化,给城乡空间的发展及服务设施的配置等带来了新的需求。文章基于“六普”“七普”数据,以区县为主要研究单元,分析珠三角地区人口年龄结构老少“两端”的演变格局,并基于0~14岁少儿人口和60岁及以上老年人口的比例变化进行聚类分析,将研究单元划分为老年人口比例加速提高型、少儿人口比例加速提高型、少儿和老年人口比例双提高型、年龄结构相对稳定型四类人口年龄结构“演变单元”,并发现四类人口年龄结构“演变单元”在空间分布及人口、经济和用地的变化方面均有显著差异。依据各类人口年龄结构“演变单元”的特征和需求,文章提出各类单元可分别侧重在适老型空间建设、儿童友好型空间建设、全龄友好型空间建设及公共服务设施配置与人口年龄结构的匹配性方面做出规划应对。

The population age structure in the Pearl Delta Region has kept changing in fast socioeconomic development,and this has brought about new demands for urban rural space and service facilities.Based on the 6th and 7th national population census data,the paper studies the evolution of junior population and senior population by counties in the Pearl River Delta region.It divides the counties into four types based on population aging structure:senior growth,junior growth,double growth,and stable structure,and concludes the difference of the four types in spatial distribution,population,economy,and land use.Based on their population aging characters and needs,the paper proposes planning responses in matching population needs with senior friendly space,children friendly space,all ages friendly space,public service facilities.