北京市“十四五”时期大气污染物与温室气体协同控制效果评估研究

Assessment of co-control effects for air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Beijing during the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan period

面对国家碳达峰、碳中和战略目标,“十四五”时期,北京市提出推进大气污染物和温室气体排放协同控制,因此,开展协同控制效果评估对于持续改善空气质量和减少碳排放具有重要意义.本研究在减排措施筛选和减排量测算的基础上,分析了主要大气污染物和CO_(2)的减排潜力,采用协同控制效应坐标系法、协同控制交叉弹性分析法和协同评估指数法,对减排措施主要大气污染物SO_(2)、NO_(x)、PM_(10)、VOCs和温室气体CO_(2)的协同控制效果进行评估.结果表明,减排措施对于SO_(2)、NO_(x)的减排潜力均在20%以上,对于CO_(2)的减排潜力约为7%.各项措施对NO_(x)、PM_(10)、VOCs和CO_(2)排放具有协同控制效果.从坐标系法和评估指数法分析结果来看,浅山区煤改清洁能源和压减本地火力发电量对SO_(2)和CO_(2)的协同控制效果较好,而推广新能源车对NO_(x)、PM_(10)、VOCs和CO_(2)的协同控制效应为最佳;从交叉弹性分析法结果来看,推广超低能耗建筑、推广可再生能源供热、推广节能燃气壁挂炉、淘汰更新高排放车辆和降低机动车使用强可等比例减少SO_(2)和CO_(2)排放、NO_(x)和CO_(2)排放或PM_(10)和CO_(2)排放,措施协同程度较高.分别从开展全生命周期评估研究、规范评估方法、拓宽研究领域和区域的角度提出协同控制相关建议,以期为协同控制后续的研究提供方向借鉴,并为北京市大气污染物和温室气体协同控制工作提供技术支撑.

It is significance to carry out co-control effects assessment for improving air quality and reducing carbon emissions under the national strategic objectives of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In this study,the co-control effects coordinate system,co-control cross-elasticity analysis and synergy evaluation index methods are used to evaluate the benefits of co-control for SO_(2),NO_(x),PM_(10),VOCs and CO_(2) base on emission reduction measures screening and emission reduction calculation.The results show that the emission reduction potential of SO_(2) and NO_(x) is more than 20%,and the emission reduction potential of CO_(2) is about 7%.All the emission reduction measures are able to achieve co-reduction of NO_(x),PM_(10),VOCs and CO_(2) emissions.The analytical results of co-control effects coordinate system and synergy evaluation index analysis show that replacing coal-fired with clean energy and reducing local thermal power generation obtain the higher co-benefits of SO_(2) and CO_(2),and promoting new energy vehicles has the highest co-benefits of NO_(x),PM_(10),VOCs and CO_(2);the analytical results of co-control cross-elasticity analysis shows that promoting ultra-low energy buildings,renewable energy for heating,energy-saving gas wall hanging furnace,phasing out and upgrading high-emission vehicles and reducing vehicle use intensity could reduce SO_(2) and CO_(2) emissions equally or NO_(x) and CO_(2) emissions equally or PM_(10) and CO_(2) emissions equally,with a high degree of coordination.Therefore,the co-control suggestions from the perspectives of life cycle assessment investigation has been proposed which could provide reference for the future research of co-control and the technical support for the management decision of air pollution control and low carbon development in Beijing.