房价对城市创新发展的门槛效应研究—以长三角区域为例

Research on the threshold effect of housing price on urban innovation development--taking Yangtze River Delta region as an example

采用长三角地区2009—2018年的城市面板数据,通过面板门槛模型研究房价对城市创新的非线性门槛效应影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:1.房价对城市创新的影响具有门槛效应,门槛估计值为7598元/平方米和16784元/平方米,房价攀升会弱化房价对城市创新的负向作用;2.房价在人均研发经费对城市创新的正向影响中呈现先强化后弱化的结构性调节作用,相应门槛值为4226元/平方米与9393元/平方米,而当房价大于4226元/平方米且小于9393元/平方米时,房价能大幅度促进人均研发经费对城市创新的正向影响;3.房价减弱了工资水平对城市创新的正向影响,相应门槛值为7598元/平方米与16874元/平方米,而16874元/平方米是劳动力进行创新活动的房价容忍度;4.从三类门槛值来看,房价变化更容易引发资本的错配效应,但房价与工资水平有着较强的协同性关系。

Based on the panel data of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2009 to 2018,this paper investigates the nonlinear threshold effect of housing price on urban innovation and its mechanism through the panel threshold model.The results show that:1.the impact of housing price on urban innovation will have a threshold eff ect with the change of housing price.The estimated threshold values are 7598 yuan/m^(2) and 16784 yuan/m^(2).The rise of housing price will weaken the negative eff ect of hosing price on urban innovation.2.Housing price has a structural moderating eff ect of strengthening and then weakening on the positive impact of per capita R&D expenditure on urban innovation.The corresponding threshold values are 4226 yuan/m^(2) and 9393 yuan/m^(2),and when the housing price is more than 4226 yuan/m^(2) and less than 9393 yuan/m^(2),the housing price can signifi cantly promote the positive impact of per capita R&D expenditure on urban innovation.3.Housing price weakens the positive impact of wage level on urban innovation,and the corresponding threshold values are 7598 yuan/m^(2) and 16874 yuan/m^(2),and 16874 yuan/m^(2) is the housing price tolerance of labor for innovation activities.4.From the three threshold values,the change of housing price is more likely to cause the mismatch eff ect of capital,but there is a strong synergy between housing price and wage level.