中国存款保险基金目标比率测算——基于经验算法视角

Measurement of the Target Ratio of Deposit Insurance Fund in China: Based on the Perspective of Empirical Algorithm

道德风险、逆向选择和代理问题是影响存款保险基金安全的三大因素,为缓解上述因素的负面影响,设定一个具有合理界值的目标比率非常重要,但是现有研究较少涉及对存款保险基金目标比率的多元实证测度。鉴于此,基于经验算法视角构建目标比率测算模型,结合2010—2020年中国10家样本银行的观测数据,引入变动现实样本对中国存款保险基金目标比率的理论界值范围进行改良性测算,并改进实际测算工作的逻辑框架与设计谬误,以实现新的边际贡献。研究发现:基于大型赔付标准与中型赔付标准的目标比率范围存在明显差距,1.433%~1.946%是非危机时期的理想目标比率范围,而在银行危机概率显著提升时期,可以考虑暂时将目标比率的设定阈值提高至3.815%,从而确保赔付安全与金融稳定。

Moral hazard, adverse selection and agency problem are three major factors that affect the safety of deposit insurance fund. In order to alleviate the negative impact of the above factors, it is important to set a target ratio with reasonable boundaries. However, there are few studies on the multivariate empirical measurement of the target ratio of deposit insurance fund. In view of this, the paper constructs a target ratio calculation model from the perspective of empirical algorithm. Combined with the observation data of 10 sample banks in China from 2010 to 2020,changing reality samples are introduced to revise and calculate the theoretical boundary range of the target ratio of China’s deposit insurance fund, and the logical framework and design fallacy of the actual measurement work are improved, aiming to realize new marginal contribution. The study finds that there is a significant gap between the target ratio boundaries based on large-scale compensation standard and medium-sized compensation standard. The range from 1.433% to 1.946% is the ideal target ratio boundary of deposit insurance fund in non-crisis period. When the probability of bank crisis increases significantly, it can be considered to temporarily increase the set threshold of the target ratio to 3.815%,so as to ensure the safety of payment and financial stability.