援疆政策对新疆旅游经济增长的影响研究

The Study on Influence of Aid Policy on Tourism Economy Growth in Xinjiang

对口援疆是解决区域非均衡化发展、激发新疆“造血式”自我发展机制形成的中国特色援助政策.旅游业是新疆的特色优势产业,援疆政策能够显著促进新疆旅游经济增长.本文基于2006-2019年省域和市域面板数据,通过合成控制法和得分匹配结合双重差分模型(PSM-DID)评估新一轮援疆政策对新疆旅游经济增长的影响效果和驱动机制.结果显示:援疆政策推进新疆旅游经济发展进程,特别是2015年全国旅游援疆工作会议召开后,新疆旅游经济迈入高速度发展阶段;从省域层面看,比较援疆政策实施前后,新疆旅游经济增长率显著提升,远高于其合成对象;从市域层面看,援疆政策显著促进新疆旅游业发展,受援地州市的旅游经济综合质量增长率明显上升.

Counterpart assistance to Xinjiang is a special policy with Chinese characteristics to solve the unbalanced regional development and stimulate the formation of Xinjiang’s “hematopoietic” self-development mechanism. Tourism is a characteristic and advantageous industry in Xinjiang, and the aid Xinjiang policy can significantly promote the growth of tourism economy in Xinjiang. Based on the panel data from 2006 to 2019, this paper evaluates the impact and driving mechanism of the new round of counterpart aid policy on Xinjiang’s tourism economic growth through synthetic control method and PSM-DID. The results show that the policy of aid Xinjiang promoted the development process of Xinjiang’s tourism economy, especially after the national tourism aid Xinjiang work conference in 2015, Xinjiang’s tourism economy has entered the stage of high-speed development. From the provincial level, compared with before and after the implementation of aid Xinjiang policy, the growth rate of tourism economy in Xinjiang has increased significantly, which is much higher than its synthetic object. From the city level, the aid Xinjiang policy can remarkablely advance the development of tourism in Xinjiang, and the growth rate of comprehensive quality of tourism economy in the recipient prefectures and cities has increased significantly.