重庆市水资源承载力时空特征与承载状态

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Carrying State in Chongqing

通过构建集水资源、社会、经济、生态环境和协调管理多系统的综合评价体系,采用状态空间法,对重庆市水资源承载力进行测度,进行时间序列上的分析,并利用GIS软件,依据自然断裂点法,对重庆市的水资源承载力进行空间关联格局分析,借助GeoDa软件对水资源承载力进行空间自相关分析,得到了重庆市各区(县)的水资源承载力值及其时空分布特征,研究结果表明:(1) 2014-2018年重庆市水资源承载力呈先下降、后上升、再下降的发展趋势.(2)重庆市水资源承载力的空间分布格局较稳定,部分区(县)有所变化;高值区和较高值区分布相对集中,主要分布在渝东北、渝东南区域以及中心城区;低值区和较低值区主要分布在渝西和渝东北区域的工农业产区,其他区域的少部分区(县)也有分布.中值区分布最零散,各区域均有分布.(3) 2014-2018年,重庆市各区(县)水资源承载状态呈现逐渐恶化的趋势,其变化趋势与水资源承载力变化趋势相吻合.(4)重庆市各区(县)水资源承载力在空间上的分布不是随机的,在地理空间上存在明显的空间集聚效应.总体上2014-2018年重庆市水资源承载力高高值集聚区主要分布在渝东北、渝东南和中心城区3个区域,低低值集聚区主要分布在渝东北和渝西两个区域.重庆市水资源承载力在时间序列上呈现不稳定发展趋势,在空间分布上存在区域差距,渝东北和渝东南水资源承载力相对较高,渝西区域水资源承载力相对较弱.

In this paper, the subjective and objective comprehensive weighting state space methods were used to construct a multi-system integrated evaluation system of water resources, society, economy, ecological environment and coordinated management. By using GIS software, according to the natural fracture point method, the spatial-temporal analysis of water resources carrying capacity in Chongqing was carried out. The spatial autocorrelation analysis of water resources carrying capacity with GeoDa software was performed to clarify the water resources carrying capacity in each district of Chongqing, and provide new ideas for solving the regional gap problem in southwest China and realizing rural revitalization and development. The results showed that:(1) The water resources carrying capacity of Chongqing presented an inverted N-type development trend in 2014 to 2018.(2) The spatial distribution pattern of water resources carrying capacity in Chongqing was relatively stable, with certain changes in some districts and counties. High and higher value areas were relatively concentrated, and mainly distributed in the northeast, southeast and central urban areas of Chongqing. The low and lower value areas were mainly distributed in the industrial and agricultural production areas of western and northeastern Chongqing and a few counties in other regions. The distribution of the median value area was the most scattered, and distributed in all regions.(3) In 2014 to 2018, the water resources carrying state of all districts and counties in Chongqing showed a trend of gradual deterioration, and the change trend was consistent with the change trend of water resources carrying capacity.(4) The spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity in Chongqing was not random, but had obvious spatial agglomeration effect in geographical space. In general, the high and higher value cluster areas of water resources carrying capacity in Chongqing in 2014 to 2018 were mainly distributed in northeast and southeast of Chongqing and central urban area, while low-value cluster areas were mainly distributed in northeast and west of Chongqing. The water resources carrying capacity of Chongqing presented an unstable development trend in time series. There were regional differences in spatial distribution. The carrying capacity of water resources in northeast and southeast of Chongqing was relatively high, while that in western Chongqing was relatively low.