全球贸易网络与股票市场收益影响力

Global Trade Network and Stock Market Return’s Influence

本文分别构建全球股票市场领先滞后关系网络和贸易网络,据此分析股票市场收益影响力与贸易地位的匹配关系,结果发现:(1)一国贸易地位显著正向影响其股票市场收益影响力。(2)金融开放程度、贸易开放程度、出口复杂度会影响贸易地位与股市收益影响力的匹配程度。我国二者错配的主因是金融开放程度不足。(3)贸易大国出众的收益冲击转移能力造就了其股市收益引导者角色,金融开放通过削弱市场信息摩擦的方式缓解股市收益影响力不及贸易地位的问题。

We construct a model of the global stock market lead-lag relationship network and trade network to analyze the matching relationship between stock market return influence and trade status.The results show that:(1)A country’s trade status significantly positively affects its stock market return influence.(2)The degree of financial openness,trade openness,and export complexity will affect the matching degree of trade status and the influence of stock market returns.The main reason for the mismatch between the two in China is the insufficiency of financial openness.(3)The outstanding income shock transfer ability of a major trading country has created its role as the leader of stock market returns.Financial opening has alleviated the problem that stock market returns are less influential than trade status by weakening market information friction.