汇率变动、国际移民与技能偏向性效应

Exchange Rate Change,International Migration and Skill-biased Effect

本文基于迁移成本和生活品质等新视角为汇率对国际移民的影响提供了更具一般意义的理论框架和经验证据,并探讨了汇率变动的技能偏向性效应。研究发现,本币汇率升值会促进移民流出,当目的国迁移成本更大或生活品质更高时,这一促进效应会得到提升,上述结论在中国样本下会大幅增强。如果技能移民比例较高,本币汇率升值会进一步促进移民流出,基于发展中国家更多技能移民流出的现实,本币汇率升值可能加剧发展中国家的人才流失。

We try to study the impact of exchange rate changes on migration in a general sense with perspectives of migration cost and quality of life and explores the skill-biased effect.We find that exchange rate appreciation promotes emigration,and the effect is enhanced when migration cost or the quality of life is higher in the destination.The above findings are substantially strengthened in China.If the proportion of skilled migrants is high,the appreciation will further promote migrants’ outflow.Based on the reality of more skilled migrants from developing countries,the appreciation may exacerbate the brain drain in developing countries.