中国最低工资调整与残疾人就业——基于县级邻近配对及个体追踪数据的经验证据与影响机制

Minimum Wage Effects on the Disabled Chinese——Evidence and Mechanisms from Panel Microdata and Contiguous Counties

本文基于中国2007—2012年残疾个体追踪数据并考虑县级邻近配对,发现:(1)残疾人就业意愿因最低工资增加而下降,失业概率则因之上升;(2)2009年以后、东北地区、女性、青少年受最低工资影响更显著;(3)机制分析显示,最低工资上升,有工作个体继续有工作可能性下降而失业或退出劳动力市场概率上升,失业个体继续失业和退出劳动力市场概率上升而有工作概率下降,无就业意愿个体继续没有就业意愿或失业可能性上升而找到工作概率下降。

Based on individual data from annual national monitoring surveys on disabled Chinese between 2007 and 2012,this research considers different pairing of counties and individual fixed effects.It finds that,first,minimum wage hikes reduce the possibility of individuals with disability(PWD) to participate in the labor market and increase their probability to be unemployed.Second,minimum wage has a more prominent impact after 2009 and the northeastern region.Women,younger and more educated individuals are more likely to become unemployed due to minimum wage hikes.Third,the rise in minimum wage reduces the likelihood for previously employed PWD to remain employed and pushes up their likelihood to become unemployed and inactive;for previously unemployed PWD,they are more likely to remain unemployed or become inactive whereas less likely to find jobs when minimum wage increases;for inactive PWD,higher minimum wage corresponds to higher probability of remaining inactive or becoming unemployed,and lower probability of finding employment.