新“海上丝绸之路”:中国与东盟

China,ASEAN and the New Maritime Silk Road

2020年,东盟成为中国第一大贸易伙伴。2021年是中国—东盟建立对话关系30周年,双方关系定位也由战略伙伴关系提升为全面战略伙伴关系,这是双方关系史上的新里程碑。随着双方关系的日益密切,中国急需对东盟有更深刻的理解。海洋本身具备极强的开放性,因此东南亚在历史上很难成为具有自我认同的单一地区。当代东南亚实则是英美在二战后为了确保在该地区的影响力而沿用的战区概念。1967年形成的“第一代东盟”五国被迫站队资本主义阵营;冷战结束后,由10个国家组成、拥有自主决定权的“第二代东盟”的出现,实际是因为美国力量的相较衰弱及中国力量的崛起和形象的改变。中国现阶段发展海军的最主要目标,是希望确保其对海上贸易的经济依赖不会受到敌视中国发展的势力的威胁、封锁或完全遏制。当下,平衡海陆事务第一次变成了中国的战略核心,陆上“一带”有助于打破海上“一路”易受控制的局面,“一路”则可能需要在经济上反哺缺乏利润的“一带”。

In 2020,ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner.2021 is the 30 th anniversary of China-ASEAN dialogue,and the relationship between the two parties will also be improved from a kind of strategic partnership to that of a comprehensive strategic partnership,a new milestone in the history of both parties.With the increasing relationship between the two parties,China urgently needs a more profound understanding of ASEAN.Openness is inherent in the ocean,and therefore Southeast Asia is difficult to become a unitary area with self-identification.The current Southeast Asia is in fact the name of a theater of military operations used by the UK and the US during World War II,and the two powers continued to use this name to secure their influence in the region.The“first generation of ASEAN”formed in 1967 when five Southeast Asian countries were forced to side with the capitalist camp,and the“second generation of ASEAN”composed of 10 countries with the right to make their own decisions after the end of the Cold War.The emergence of the“second generation of ASEAN”was in fact a result of the relative weakening of US power and the rise of Chinese power and the change of China’s image.China’s primary goal of naval development at this stage is to ensure that its economic dependence on maritime trade is not threatened,blocked,or completely contained by forces hostile to China’s development.Now,for the first time,balancing land and maritime affairs has become central to China’s strategy,with the overland“belt”helping defense against the vulnerability of the maritime“road”,while the“road”is potentially required to economically feed the lack of profitability of the“belt”.