地权稳定性与农户土地投资:基于确权政策预期与落地影响差异的讨论

Tenure Security and Farmers’Land Investment:Different Impacts of Land Titling Policy between Expectation and Implementation

研究目的:利用江苏省18县地块层面2期调查数据,分析承包地确权政策从预期实施到落地完成各阶段对农户土地投资的影响差异,检验地权稳定性对土地投资的重要性并评估政策效果。研究方法:多期DID模型和Probit模型。研究结果:(1)确权政策对承包地投资的影响存在阶段性差异,在确权预期和启动阶段表现出抑制作用,在确权落地阶段则表现出促进农户对经营的自家承包地进行投资的作用,但不会促进对转入的他人承包地的投资。(2)从地权稳定性角度来看,抑制效应源于确权推广过程中土地调整或权属界定争议引致的地权不稳定,激励效应则源于确权落地后承包权稳定性的提高。(3)如果不控制确权预期和启动起到的作用,采用通常方法进行估计会高估确权落地的投资激励效应。研究结论:保持承包地地权稳定对促进农户对经营的自家承包地的投资具有重要意义。从激励投资角度来看,在二轮承包地即将到期之际各地应抓紧研究“再延30年”的具体方案并提前公布,稳定农民的产权预期。

The purpose of this study is to discuss different impacts of land titling policy between expectation and implementation on farmers’land investment.The research method is to use plot level data from a two-round survey of 18 counties from Jiangsu Province to examine the importance of tenure security for land investment and assesses impacts of the policy through time-varying DID model and Probit model.The results show that:1)both the expectation and initiation of the policy have negative impact on land investment,while the implementation of the policy has positive impact on investment in self-owned land rather than rent-in land.2)The negative impact is due to tenure insecurity produced by land adjustment or ownership disputes during the policy implementation,and the positive impact is due to enhancement of tenure security after the implementation.3)If not controlling for the role of the expectation and initiation,the estimated impact of the policy is overestimated.In conclusion,maintaining tenure security is of great significance to farmers’investment in self-owned land.From the perspective of promoting investment,the specific plan for“another 30 years”should be formulated as soon as possible to stabilize farmers’expectation of tenure security when the second round of contracted land is about to expire.