农业现代化对农业劳动生产率的影响研究——基于门槛效应的实证分析

Study on the Influence of Agricultural Modernization on Agricultural Labor Productivity——Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Effect

为实现“十四五”规划和2035远景目标提出的农业现代化目标,本文研究农业现代化和农业劳动生产率之间的关系,以推动我国农业高质量发展。门槛模型检验发现:农业现代化为门槛变量时,其对农业劳动生产率存在单一门槛效应,农业现代化水平只有高于门槛值时才对农业劳动生产率的提高有显著的正向影响;以经济发展水平为门槛变量时,农业现代化对农业劳动生产率有单一门槛效应,经济发展水平低于门槛值时,农业现代化水平虽对农业劳动生产率的存在正向影响,但其影响程度小于经济发展水平高时;以产业结构为门槛变量时,农业现代化对农业劳动生产率有单一门槛效应,当产业结构越过门槛值时,农业现代化对农业劳动生产率的提高影响变得不显著。基于此,提高我国农业劳动生产率需要大力提升农业现代化水平,同时需要根据不同地区经济发展水平精准施策。

In order to realize the goal of agricultural modernization put forward in the "the 14th Five-Year Plan" and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035. This paper studies the relationship between agricultural modernization and agricultural labor productivity.The threshold model test shows that when agricultural modernization is a threshold variable, it has a single threshold effect on agricultural labor productivity. Only when the level of agricultural modernization is higher than the threshold, it has a significant positive impact on the improvement of agricultural labor productivity. When the level of economic development is taken as the threshold variable, agricultural modernization has a single threshold effect on agricultural labor productivity. When the level of economic development is lower than the threshold value, although the level of agricultural modernization has a positive impact on agricultural labor productivity, its impact is less than that when the level of economic development is high. Taking the industrial structure as the threshold variable, agricultural modernization has a single threshold effect on agricultural labor productivity. When the industrial structure crosses the threshold, the impact of agricultural modernization on the improvement of agricultural labor productivity becomes insignificant. Based on this, improving China’s agricultural labor productivity needs to vigorously enhance the level of agricultural modernization. At the same time, it is necessary to make accurate policies according to the level of economic development in different regions.