天气衍生品对农作物产量波动的对冲效果研究

Research on hedging effect on crop output fluctuations in weather derivatives

气候变化对农作物生产具有重要影响,农户可以使用天气衍生品合理对冲天气风险。本文采用CNN-LSTM模型拟合降雨数据并进行有效预测,采用对数线性模型拟合大豆单量的变化,以此为基础得到累积降雨指数(RVD)期货价格,进而在方差最小化方法下采用RVD期货对冲大豆产量波动的数量风险。经实证分析可知,CNN-LSTM模型能更精准地预测降雨数据变化;RVD期货能有效对冲大豆产量的数量风险,这为农业气象风险管理增加了一个有效的风险分摊工具。

Climate change has an important impact on crop production. Farmers can use weather derivatives to reasonably hedge the weather risk. This article uses the CNN-LSTM model to fit the rainfall data and conduct effective prediction. The change of the single-soybean quantity of the soybean-to-soybean quota of the digital model is used. RVD futures risks of shedding soybean output fluctuations. It can be seen that the CNN-LSTM model can more accurately predict the changes in rainfall data;RVD futures can effectively hedge the number of soybean output risks, which adds an effective risk sharing tool to agricultural meteorological risk management.