我国分布式光伏发电项目经济效益评价研究——基于区域层面不同电价情景的分析

Study on the evaluation of economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in China——Analysis based on different tariff scenarios at regional level

我国发展分布式光伏发电前景广阔,但目前存在地区间发展不平衡、发电成本较高等问题。因此,有必要针对国内分布式光伏发电项目的经济性进行分区域研究。本文选取全国三类太阳能资源区共9个城市,采用平准化发电成本(LCOE)模型对当地分布式光伏项目在5种不同细分电价情景下的经济性进行研究,并加入效益指标改进得到平准化发电净现值(LNOE)模型,利用该模型对不同城市项目的经济性进行测算和比较。LCOE结果显示:在不同折现率下,拥有省市补贴地区项目在现有补贴水平下具有一定经济性,但从LNOE的结果来看,折现率较高时项目长期的经济性需要进一步提高。根据测算结果,应及时调整光伏相关电价及补贴、加大光伏发电研发投入、实行分布式光伏项目的智能化管理。

The development of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China is promising, but at present there are problems of unbalanced development between regions and high cost of power generation. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a sub-regional study on the economics of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in China. In this paper, nine cities in three types of solar resource zones are selected to study the economics of local distributed PV projects under five different tariff scenarios using the levelized cost of electricity generation(LCOE) model. At the same time, this paper improves the LCOE model by adding efficiency indicators to obtain the levelized net present value of electricity generation(LNOE) model,which is used to measure and compare the economics of distributed PV projects in different cities. The results of LCOE show that the projects with provincial and municipal subsidies in the region have certain economy under the existing subsidy level at different discount rates, but the results of LNOE show that the long-term economy of the project needs further improvement when the discount rate is higher. Finally, this paper makes suggestions in terms of policy, technology, and operation based on the measurement and analysis results.