老龄化对收入不平等的非线性影响:跨国面板数据的经验

Nonlinear impact of aging on income inequality:Evidence from multinational panel data

老龄化对收入不平等是否存在非线性影响?本文基于多套老龄化和收入不平等测度指标,利用多种面板数据模型计量分析老龄化对收入不平等的影响.实证结果表明,人口老龄化与收入不平等间存在U型关系.在达到某一临界值前,人口老龄化对收入不平等具有抑制作用;而当超过该临界值后,其将扩大收入不平等.在控制动态、交互等内生性后,上述结论依然稳健.进一步,本文计算了1978-2018年间老龄化对G20国家收入不平等的总效应,发现老龄化对中国及多数新兴经济体的收入不平等具有很强的抑制作用,仅日本及欧洲国家的不平等程度扩大.但值得警惕的是,中国从整体上正快速地向拐点逼近.本文的非线性研究结论表明,针对中国处于不同老龄化阶段的各地区,在推进共同富裕进程中的政策设计要因地制宜,避免一刀切.

Is there a nonlinear effect of aging on income inequality?Based on multiple sets of aging and income inequality measurement indicators,this paper uses several panel data models to analyze the impact of aging on income inequality.The empirical results show that there is a U-shape effect of population aging on income inequality.Before the population aging reaches a certain threshold,it has a negative effect on income inequality,when over the threshold,it will expand income inequality.After the endogenous control of dynamic and interactive,the above conclusions are still robust.Furthermore,this paper calculates the total effect of aging on income inequality in G20 countries from 1978 to 2018,it’s found that the aging of China and most emerging economies has reduced the level of income inequality,only expanding inequality in Japan and European countries.But it is alarming that China is approaching the turning point rapidly as a whole.The non-linear research conclusion of this paper shows that the policy design in the process of promoting common prosperity should be adapted to local conditions and avoid one-size-fits-all.