基于SNA+MCS的地下综合管廊PPP项目关键风险识别与量化分析

Key Risk Identification and Quantitative Analysis of Underground Pipe Gallery PPP Project Based on SNA+MCS

复杂、不确定的风险因素贯穿于地下综合管廊PPP项目建设、运维和移交的全生命周期,极大地影响着项目的最终成功。文章基于全国PPP综合信息平台项目管理库公开信息,使用社会网络分析软件UCINET整理、可视化185个入库项目的初始风险清单,识别得出包含7大风险类别、25个风险因素的地下综合管廊PPP项目关键风险;基于风险因素对可行性缺口补助测算要素的影响路径分析,结合具体案例并使用蒙特卡洛模拟方法量化项目关键风险,并重新对财政风险承担支出进行测算,新测算结果与项目关键风险的不确定性呈正比,研究成果为地下综合管廊PPP项目的风险识别与量化提供新的思路。在此基础上,文章最后提出对地下综合管廊PPP项目财政支出进行动态管理的相关建议与展望。

Complex and uncertain risk factors which greatly affect the final success of the project run through the whole life cycle of the underground pipe gallery PPP project including the construction, operation, maintenance and handover. Based on the public information of the project management database of the national PPP comprehensive information platform, this paper uses the social network analysis software UCINET to sort out and visualize the initial risk list of 185 warehousing projects, and identifies the key risks of the underground pipe gallery PPP project including 7 risk categories and 25 risk factors;based on the analysis of the impact path of risk factors on the calculation elements of feasibility gap subsidy, combined with specific cases, the key risks of the project are quantified by Monte Carlo simulation method to recalculate the financial risk bearing expenditure of the project. The new calculation results are directly proportional to the uncertainty of the key risks of the project. The research results provide new ideas for risk identification and quantification of the underground pipe gallery PPP project. Based on the research results, the paper finally puts forward relevant suggestions and prospects for the dynamic management of financial expenditure of the underground pipe gallery PPP project.