基于SD与AHP模型的流域水资源承载力仿真研究

Simulation Research on Carrying Capacity of Basin Water Resources Based on SD and AHP Model

文章将系统动力学与层次分析法相结合,构建流域水资源承载力评价指标,并以渭河流域中下游为例,设计五种仿真方案,得到2005-2040年人口、经济、水资源供给和需求、水环境、水污染与管理六个子系统在不同方案下的发展趋势。结果表明,在维持现状和优先发展经济两种方案下,流域水资源承载力将下降至不良的承载状态;在优先节约水资源和优先保护环境两种方案下,流域水资源承载力状态有所改善,将上升至正常的承载状态;在协调发展方案下,流域水资源承载力持续改善,将上升至良好的承载状态。协调发展方案兼顾了经济发展和流域水资源与环境保护,有利于实现社会、经济、环境三者效益的统一,因此认为协调发展方案为最优方案。

By combining the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and system dynamics(SD),this paper establishes an evaluation index system for water environment carrying capacity.Taking the downstream of Weihe watershed for example,the development tendencies of the population,economy,water resource demand and supply,water environment,water pollutionand water management are obtained for 2005to 2040by designing five simulation schemes.The results show that under the two schemes of maintaining the status quo and giving priority to economic development,the water resource carrying capacity of the watershed will decrease to a poor bearing state.Under the two schemes of giving priority to water conservation and environmental protection,the carrying capacity of water resources has been improved and will be in a normal bearing state.Under the coordinated development scheme,the water resources carrying capacity has been improved and will rise to a good bearing state.The coordinated development scheme takes into account the economic development,basin water resources and environmental protection,which is conducive to the realization of the unity of benefits of society,economy and environment,and it is considered that the coordinated development plan is the best scheme.