密云水库洪水预报模型及预报成果分析

Analysis on Flood Prediction Model and Prediction Results in Miyun Reservoir

密云水库作为华北地区最大的水库,具有防洪、供水等功能,是确保首都防洪安全和供水安全的重要水利工程。准确预报密云水库洪水对于优化水库调度、确保首都防洪安全具有重要意义。介绍了密云水库水文预报的发展历程及各种预报方案的应用情况,重点介绍了分布式水文模型EasyDHM在洪水预报过程中的使用情况。预报成果分析表明,现有的分布式水文预报模型能更好提升密云水库的洪水预报精度。

As the largest reservoir in North China,Miyun Reservoir has the main functions of flood control and water supply,and is an important water conservancy project to ensure the safety of flood control and water supply in Beijing. Accurate flood prediction of Miyun Reservoir is of great significance for optimizing reservoir operation and ensuring flood control safety of the capital. This paper introduces the development of hydrological forecast and the application of various forecast schemes in flood forecast of Miyun Reservoir,especially the application of distributed hydrological model EasyDHM in flood forecast of Miyun Reservoir. Through analyzing the prediction results of distributed hydrological prediction model,the results show that the existing distributed hydrological prediction model can better improve the flood prediction accuracy of Miyun Reservoir.