基于偏最小二乘回归的水土流失社会经济影响因素分析

Analysis of Socio-economic Influencing Factors of Soil Erosion Based on Partial Least Squares Regression

[目的]定量研究赣南地区水土流失与社会经济因素之间的作用关系,可以为该区水土保持工作的科学开展提供参考依据。[方法]基于江西省历次土壤侵蚀遥感普查成果,结合相应年份社会、经济统计资料,运用偏最小二乘回归模型(PLS)对赣南地区1996—2019年的水土流失进行社会经济驱动因素的定量分析,并辨识了关键影响因素。[结果]社会经济因素对水土流失状况影响显著,水土流失面积为水土流失状况的最佳表征指标,模型能解释84.7%以上的因变量变异。影响赣南地区水土流失的关键指标及其综合影响程度的排序为农作物播种面积>农村居民可支配收入>第一产业占比>人均GDP>总人口>第三产业占比>农作物播种占比>土地面积>治理度。土地面积是影响水土流失规模的关键因素,但剧烈及以上程度的流失受经济因素的影响程度更大。[结论]该研究结果对区域水土流失治理工作具有重要指导意义。

[Objective]In order to quantitatively study the relationship between soil erosion and social-economic factors in southern Jiangxi Province,it can provide reference for the scientific development of soil and water conservation in this area.[Method]Based on the results of previous remote sensing surveys of soil erosion in Jiangxi Province,combined with the social and economic statistics in the corresponding period,the study quantitatively analyzed the socio-economic driving forces of soil and water loss in Gannan area from 1996 to 2019 by using partial least squares regression model(PLS),and the key influencing factors were identified.[Result]Socio-economic factors had a significant impact on soil and water loss.The area of soil and water loss was the best indicator of soil and water loss.The model could explain more than 84.7%of the variation of dependent variables.The key indicators affecting soil and water loss in Gannan and their comprehensive impact degree were as follows:crop sowing area>disposable income of rural residents>proportion of primary industry>per capita GDP>total population>proportion of tertiary industry>proportion of crop sowing>land area>control degree.Land area was the key factor affecting the scale of soil and water loss,but severe and above losses were more affected by economic factors.[Conclusion]The research results will have important guiding significance for regional soil and water loss control.