北京市政府搬迁至副中心对通州土地利用影响

Impact of the Relocation of Beijing Municipal Government to Sub-Center Tongzhou District on the Land Use of Tongzhou District

预测市政府搬迁对土地利用的影响,能为城市发展建设提供合理的建议。按照《北京城市总体规划(2016—2035年)》和《北京城市副中心控制性详细规划(街区层面)(2016—2035年)》的设想及现实条件,运用景观格局指数和MCE-CA-Markov耦合模型,对通州区2009—2017年的景观格局特征进了行分析,模拟预测北京市政府东迁后2035年通州区的土地利用类型、结构、布局和强度。结果表明:(1)通州景观水平上,景观总体破碎化程度降低;类型水平上,建设用地、耕地是主导优势地类。(2)2009—2017年,通州区有5.09%土地利用类型发生变化,耕地主要流向建设用地和设施农用地;建设用地的增加主要来源于耕地、林地和水域。(3)对通州区2035年土地利用进行模拟预测,2009—2035年耕地、园地(草地)减少;林地、设施农用地、建设用地及水域明显增加,这期间城市化进程加快,建设用地不断占用周围的耕地。未来需做好减量发展,控制建设用地规模,继续严格保护耕地和生态用地。

Predicting the impact of the relocation of municipal government on land use can provide reasonable suggestions for urban development and construction.According to the ideation and conception of‘Beijing City Comprehensive Plan(2016—2035)’and‘Regulative Detailed Plan of the Sub-center of Beijing City(at Block Level)(2016—2035)’,and actual natural factors and developmental conditions,we utilized landscape pattern index and MCE-CA-Markov model to analyze the landscape pattern features(2009—2017)of Tongzhou District and to simulatively forecast the type,structure,layout,and strength of the land use of Tongzhou District in 2035 after the eastward move of the municipal government of Beijing.The results demonstrated that:(1)at the landscape level in Tongzhou District,the landscape fragmentation declined;at the type level,constructive and cultivated land were the dominant types of land;(2)from 2009 to 2017 in Tongzhou District,5.09%of the type of land use changed,specifically,cultivated land mainly transformed into constructive land and agricultural facility land;the main increments of constructive land derived from cultivated land,forestland,and water area;(3)by simulating the land use of Tongzhou District in 2035,from 2009 to 2035,the cultivated and grassland will decrease,and forestland,agricultural facility land,constructive land,and water area will increase apparently;During that time,the process of urbanization significantly will speed up and constructive land continually will take up cultivated land.In the future,it is necessary to control the development scale of constructive land and continue to strictly protect cultivated land and biological land.