基于AHP与历史灾情数据的城市森林火灾风险评估

Urban forest fire risk assessment based on AHP and historical disaster data

我国地域辽阔,森林资源丰富,近年来森林火灾频繁发生。在参考相关学者研究的基础上,以常州市森林为研究区域,建立了适应城市森林火灾风险评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)建立评估模型,并使用历史灾情数据法来验证评估结果的有效性和科学性。最后根据数学逻辑运算计算出各级指标的隶属度及分级。研究发现:在城市森林火灾发生因素的指标占比中最大的是人类活动,这区别于传统大型森林火灾着火因素。城市森林一般位于郊区或离市区不远处,人造山林甚至就在中心城区内,一旦发生森林火灾将对整个城市的经济、环境、安全造成巨大的影响。

China has a vast territory and abundant forest resources,and forest fires have occurred frequently in recent years.Based on the research of relevant scholars,this paper takes the forest of Changzhou as the research area,establishes an evaluation index system of adapting to urban forest fire risk,uses the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to establish the evaluation model,and uses the historical disaster data method to verify the validity and scientific nature of the evaluation results.Finally,the affiliation and grading of indicators at each level were calculated according to mathematical logic operations.It is found that human activity is the largest factor in the index proportion of urban forest fire,which is different from the traditional large forest fire caused by lightning and combustible ignition factors.Urban forests are usually located in suburban areas or not far from urban areas,and man-made mountains and forests are even located within the central city,which will have a huge impact on the economy,environment and security of the whole city in case of forest fires.