中美两国对CPTPP成员国商品出口波动特征研究

Research on the Fluctuation of Commodity Exports from China and US to CPTPP Members

以中美两国对11个CPTPP成员国的出口贸易数据为考察对象,借助CMS模型交叉分解了出口波动因素并探讨贸易转移效应。研究表明:中美两国对CPTPP成员国商品出口规模及市场占有率的差距以协定生效为界逐渐缩小;中国对越南等发展中成员国以及消费品、资本品的出口竞争力显著提升,但供需契合度的不足削弱了增长持续性,且该特征在后CPTPP时期更加鲜明;CPTPP成员对美国的出口转移效应源于其对加拿大、墨西哥市场的绝对依赖以及资本品、初级品等优势产品的供给份额下降。中国应巩固与发展中成员国的出口联系,进一步扩大对日本、加拿大等发达成员国消费品的出口份额,加强中间品、资本品的竞争力,提升对国别需求的适应性,实现对CPTPP成员国高质量出口以加快CPTPP谈判进程。

The commodity exports data of China and the US to 11 CPTPP members are examined, and the export fluctuation factors are cross-decomposed and trade diversion effects are explored with the help of CMS model.The research shows that:(1) The gaps of export scale and market share between China and the US gradually narrow with the entry into force of CPTPP;(2) China’s export competitiveness to developing members such as Vietnam and consumer and capital goods increases significantly, but the lack of supply-demand alignment reduces export sustainability, which becomes more distinct in the post-CPTPP period;(3) the export diversion effect of CPTPP to the US stems from its absolute dependence on the Canadian and Mexican markets and the declining supply share of capital and primary goods;(4) China should further consolidate its export ties with developing members, expand its share of exports of consumer goods to developed members such as Japan and Canada, and enhance the competitiveness of intermediate and capital goods to improve their adaptability to demand in order to achieve high-quality exports to CPTPP members and accelerate the negotiation process.