“新南向”政策下台湾地区与东盟贸易效应分析

Analysis of Trade Effect between Taiwan and ASEAN under "New Southward" Policy

“新南向”政策并未对台湾地区与东盟及其各成员的贸易流量、贸易结构、贸易强度起到积极推动作用。随着RCEP经济体之间贸易壁垒的不断削弱及贸易便利化的提升,可能导致贸易从台湾地区向RCEP区域内的经济体转移,“新南向”政策不可能帮助台湾参与区域经济整合。台湾当局唯有回到一个中国原则和在“九二共识”基础上,深化两岸融合发展,参与区域经济整合才是正确选择。

The "New Southward" policy has not played a positive role in promoting the trade flow, trade structure and trade intensity between Taiwan and ASEAN and its members. With the weakening of trade barriers among RCEP economies and the improvement of trade facilitation, trade may shift from Taiwan to economies within the RCEP region, and the "New Southward" policy is unlikely to help Taiwan participate in regional economic integration. Only by returning to the One-China principle and the "1992 Consensus", deepening the integrated development of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and participating in regional economic integration is the right choice for the Taiwan authorities.