中等收入群体家庭就业稳定性与生育计划研究——基于2017年和2019年中国社会状况综合调查数据

A Study on Employment Stability and Birth Planning of Middle-income Group Families——Based on the 2017 and 2019 Chinese Social Survey Data

本文使用2017年和2019年中国社会状况综合调查数据,以育龄群体为分析对象,研究了家庭就业稳定性对不同收入群体生育意愿的影响。使用两层混合效应逻辑斯蒂回归模型进行分析,研究发现:中等收入群体的生育意愿高于低收入群体;家庭就业稳定性对不同收入群体生育意愿的影响有所不同,对于低收入和高收入家庭,家人无业或不稳定就业对其生育意愿有正向影响,而对中等收入家庭的生育意愿有负向影响。由此表明,扩大中等收入群体与释放生育潜力在总体上是一致的,但在政策实施层面,需要注意日趋不稳定的就业对中等收入群体生育意愿的抑制作用。

Using the 2017 and 2019 Chinese social survey data, this paper studies the impact of family employment stability on the willingness to bear children of different income groups by taking child-bearing age groups as the analysis object. Using a two-layer mixed-effect logistic regression model for analysis, the study found that the fertility intention of the middle-income group is higher than that of the low-income group;the impact of family employment stability on the fertility intention of different income groups is different, for low-income and high-income groups, unemployment or unstable employment of family members has a positive impact on their fertility willingness, while it has a negative impact on the fertility willingness of middle-income families. This shows that expanding the middle-income group is generally consistent with the release of fertility potential, but at the policy implementation level, it is necessary to pay attention to the inhibitory effect of increasingly unstable employment on the fertility willingness of the middle-income group.