全球LNG贸易网络特征及中国LNG进口现状分析

Analysis of characteristics of global LNG trade network and China’s LNG imports

在碳中和背景下,LNG作为清洁能源在全球能源消费市场中的地位不断提升,研究全球LNG贸易网络有助于深入掌握当前LNG贸易特征,为我国LNG对外贸易和能源战略安全提供参考。本文将复杂网络分析方法和国际关系学领域中最前沿的点向交互信息(point-wise mutual information)理论相结合,从国家和站点两个层次研究全球LNG贸易网络特征及发展趋势;创新性引入依赖指数(PMI),对三大LNG进口国与各个贸易节点的偏好关系和依赖关系进行了分析,着重分析了中国LNG进口来源及演化趋势。研究表明:(1)全球LNG贸易网络正处于一个不断壮大的阶段,网络密度极低,站点之间贸易关系不充分;贸易网络呈现幂律分布,个别站点的重要性明显高于其他站点,出度较入度更为明显。(2)LNG贸易社团结构中,领导者国家为卡塔尔、澳大利亚、日本、中国、韩国、马来西亚,社团结构表明地理因素为LNG贸易中最主要的影响因素。(3)依赖指数(PMI)分析结果显示,日本、中国的进口多元化发展趋势优于韩国。(4)中国的LNG进口集中度高,主要集中于澳大利亚和卡塔尔等国,近年来虽然进口渠道逐渐向多元化转变,但短期内集中度高的现状难以显著改变。受国际政治关系愈加复杂和地理位置等因素影响,我国LNG进口安全仍然存在较大风险。

In the background of carbon neutrality, as a clean energy, LNG has been playing a more and more important role in the global energy consumption market.The study of global LNG trade network could help to understand the current LNG trade characteristics and provide a reference for China’s LNG foreign trade and energy strategic security.This paper combines the complex network analysis method with the most cutting-edge point-wise mutual information theory in the field of international relations, studies the characteristics and development trends of the global LNG trade network from the country and station levels, innovatively introduces PMI,analyzes the preference relationship and dependency relationship between the three major LNG importing countries and each trade node, and focus on analyzing the source and evolution trend of China’s LNG import.The research show that the global LNG trade network is in a growing phase, with extremely low network density and insufficient trade relations between sites;the trade network presents a power-law distribution.The importance of several sites is significantly higher than that of other sites, and the out-degree distribution is more obvious than the in-degree distribution.In the structure of LNG trade associations, the leading countries are Qatar, Australia, Japan, China, South Korea, Malaysia, and the organization structure indicates geographic factors are the most important influencing factor in LNG trade.The PMI analysis results show that Japan and China’s import diversification trend is better than South Korea.China’s LNG import concentration is extremely high, although import channels have changed to diversification, they are still extremely dependent on Australia and Qatar.Affected by political factors and geographical factors, LNG import security is at a greater risk.