论国家安全危机的预警路径

The Path to National Security Crisis Warning

[研究目的]尝试复盘苏联侵捷事件,以期构建危机预警路径。[研究方法]该文梳理了苏联侵捷前的政治与军事征候,分析危机的演化过程,研判苏联意图,确定最佳预警时间。[研究结论]国家安全危机预警应综合考察政治、军事征候,尤其关注军事征候;预警并不是将各项指标简单相加以确定预警阈值,现有的赋值模型化方法无法恰当提供预警。

[Research purpose]The paper tries to construct the path to crisis warning based on an overall review of Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia.[Research method]The review study consists of the integration of the political and military indications before the Czechoslovakia crisis,the analysis on the crisis evolution,the estimation on the Soviet intention,and the judgment on the best timing for warning.[Research conclusion]Both political and military indications should be put into consideration during national security crisis warnings,especially military ones.The warning is not a process of assigning the threshold value by simply adding all indicators together.Current modeling methods of indicator evaluation cannot provide an effective warning.