人口流动对地区经济增长的影响研究--基于重庆市的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Population Mobility on Regional Economic Growth--Based on An Empirical Analysis of Chongqing City

本文以柯布-道格拉斯生产函数为理论基础,加入人口流入和人口流出,先从理论模型的角度分析得出,人口流入通过增加输入地的就业促进经济的增长,而人口流出通过资本的回流促进输出地的物质资本积累,从而推动经济的增长,再运用重庆市2003—2020年的数据对理论演绎结果进行验证。通过主成分回归分析结果表明,重庆市有效劳动力的流出确实对重庆市的经济增长有促进作用,只是推动效果并不显著,而有效劳动力的流入对重庆市经济增长的促进作用较大,对重庆市经济近几年的高速增长做出了巨大贡献。

Taking the Cobb-Douglas(C-D)production function as the theoretical basis and adding information about population infl ow and population outfl ow,this article fi rst analyzes from the perspective of the theoretical model to conclude that population inflow promotes economic growth by increasing employment in the input places,while population outflow improves physical capital accumulation in the output places through the return of capitals,thus boosting economic growth,and theoretical deduction results are then verifi ed by using the data of Chongqing City from 2003 to 2020.The results of the principal component regression analysis show that the outfl ow of the eff ective labor force does promote the economic growth of Chongqing City,but the promotion eff ect is not signifi cant,while the infl ow of eff ective labor force promotes the economic growth of Chongqing City more obviously and has contributed greatly to the high-speed economic growth of Chongqing City in recent years.