金融自由化与商业银行不良贷款率

Financial Liberalization and Non-performing Loan Ratio of Commercial Banks

本文构建内含金融自由化的银行系统模型,通过数值模拟研究了金融自由化进程与不良贷款率之间的动态演化机理。基于96个经济体2002-2017年的跨国面板数据,对金融自由化与不良贷款率之间的复杂关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:金融自由化与东道国不良贷款率之间呈现显著的“倒U”型关系;在既定的金融自由化水平下,制度质量能够显著改善商业银行的信贷风险;我国处于金融自由化“倒U”型曲线的左半端,仍面临着金融自由化改革的“阵痛期”,短期内放松金融监管的政策仍会对我国金融系统造成一定冲击。基于“倒U”型的关系,处于中等监管水平的国家,其金融稳定状况反而更加恶劣。在一国金融自由化进程中,需要不断夯实制度质量,来抵御不良贷款率攀升的风险冲击。

This article builds a banking system model with financial liberalization,and studies the dynamic evolution mechanism between financial liberalization and non-performing loan ratio through numerical simulation.Based on the cross-country panel data of 96 economies from 2002 to 2017,the complex relationship between financial liberalization and non-performing loan ratio was empirically verified.The research results show that:There is a significant“inverted U”relationship between financial liberalization and non-performing loan ratio.For a given level of regulatory investment,animprovement in institutional quality reduces the credit risk of commercial banks.China is at the rightside of the“inverted U”curve,and is still facing the“painful period”of financial liberalization reforms.Financial liberalization in the short term will still have a certain impact on China′s financial system.Based on the“inverted U”relationship,countries located at the intermediatelevel of regulatory stringency face more financial instability than countries that are eitherloosely regulated or severely regulated.In the process of financial liberalization,it is necessary to continuously improve institution quality to withstand the risk of rising non-performing loan ratio.