基于ERGM模型的城际人口流动研究

Research on Population Mobility Network Among Cities Based on Exponential Random Graph Models

本文利用2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,采用社会网络分析方法研究中国城市间人口流动的空间结构特征。从流向上来看,人口流入分布更为集中,人口流出的分布则相对“多极化”。其次,人口流动网络具有明显的地域分布特征和群体性特点,一方面,流动空间格局的经度分割效应明显弱于纬度分割效应;另一方面,人口倾向于较短距离的省内流动,流动规模随着省级行政区域之间距离的增加而降低。进一步分析人口流动网络形成机制,研究发现,样本城市间互惠关系普遍存在;城市经济发展水平、第三产业占比、人口密度、城市公共服务水平以及空气质量均会促进人口流动;地理空间网络对人口流动的影响逐渐式微。因此,为了促使人口自由流动,实现资源的优化配置,政府既要顺应市场经济力量形成的人口空间分布和城市体系格局,也要通过优化产业结构、提供优质的城市公共服务等引导人口合理流动。

This paper uses the dynamic monitoring data of the national floating population(2017)to study the spatial structure characteristics of China’s inter-city flows of population by using the analysis method of social network.In terms of direction of population flows,the distribution of population inflow is more concentrated,while the distribution of population outflow is relatively multi-polar.Secondly,the population flow network has obvious group characteristics and geographical distribution,that’s to say,on the one hand,the longitude segmentation effect is obviously weaker than the latitude segmentation effect of the flow spatial pattern;On the other hand,migrants tend to move within a short distance,and the scale of the movement decreases with the increase of the distance among provincial administrative regions.Furthermore,the exponential random graph model(ERGM)is used to analyze the factors affecting the spatial relationship of population mobility and its mechanism.Results show that the reciprocal relationship among these sample cities is widespread;the urban economic development,proportion of tertiary industry,population density,urban public service and air quality will promote population mobility;and the geographical spatial network gradually weakens.Therefore,in order to promote population flow and realize the optimal allocation of resources,the government should not only conform to the spatial distribution of population and the pattern of urban system formed by market economic forces,but also guide the rational migration by optimizing industrial structure and providing high-quality urban public services.