湖北省新冠肺炎疫情扩散的时空过程及人文影响因素分析

Analysis of the spatio-temporal process and humanistic influencing factors of COVID-19 spread in Hubei Province

新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来,持续影响民众的生产生活.本研究在分析湖北省新冠肺炎疫情扩散的时空过程的基础上,运用回归分析等方法对疫情传播的影响因素进行分析,并对疫情防控提出建议.研究表明:湖北省新冠肺炎疫情的发展经历了新增确诊病例缓慢上升、快速上升、波动下降、持续下降4个阶段;疫情严重区域主要集中在武汉市周边地区,且呈现出距离衰减的特点;疫情的传播和发展是多因素共同作用的结果,其中从武汉流入人口比例、人口规模、人均绿地面积、人均地区生产总值及城市至武汉距离5个因素影响较大,且从武汉流入人口比例为显著影响因子.希望本研究能为国内外疫情防控工作提供科学依据,帮助相关部门进一步改进防疫措施,有效控制疫情传播.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19,it has continued to impact on people’s work and life.Based on the analysis of the spatio-temporal spread process of the COVID-19 in Hubei Province,this study used regression analysis and other methods to analyze the factors affecting the spread of the epidemic,and put forward recommendations for epidemic prevention and control.This study found that the development of COVID-19 in Hubei Province had gone through four stages of slow rise,rapid rise,decline with fluctuation,and continuous declination.The severely affected areas were mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas of Wuhan,and the distance was attenuated.The spread and development of COVID-19 was the result of a combination of many factors,among them,the proportion of the floating population from Wuhan,the size of the population,the per capita green area,the per capita GDP,and the distance from other cities to Wuhan were the five main factors.And the proportion of the floating population from Wuhan was a significant factor.We hope that this research can provide a scientific basis for domestic and international COVID-19 prevention and control and help relevant departments to improve COVID-19 prevention measures and effectively control the spread of COVID-19.