高速铁路对中国省际知识溢出的影响--基于空间计量模型的实证分析

The Influence of High-speed Railway on Inter-provincial Knowledge Spillover in China:Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Econometric Model

基于文献综述探究高速铁路对知识溢出的影响机理,利用2003—2020年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)(考虑到数据的可获得性和有效性,研究样本不包括海南省以及港澳台地区。)的专利面板数据,通过莫兰指数(Moran’s I)对中国知识产出的空间集聚特征进行刻画,并构建空间计量模型实证研究高速铁路对中国省际知识溢出的影响效应及溢出距离。研究发现:①专利空间布局从2008—2015年呈现出空间集聚性,且该集聚性不断增强,2015年后集聚性逐渐趋于平缓;②高速铁路对省际知识溢出具有显著正向影响,且该影响正在随着铁路网络的完善而不断增强;③高速铁路对省际知识溢出的影响存在一定距离限制,具体而言,2012年中国高速铁路限制距离为2096千米,误差范围不超过±29千米;2017年有效限制距离为2188千米,误差范围不超过±63千米,且随着高速铁路的发展,预计该限制距离将会逐年增大。基于研究结论,提出了合理促进高速铁路和知识溢出协同提升和均衡发展的对策建议。

Based on the literature review,the mechanism of high-speed railway on knowledge spillovers was explored.Using the patent panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2020,the spatial agglomeration characteristics of China’s knowledge output through Moran’s I was described,and a spatial econometric model was built to empirically study the impact effect and spillovers distance of high-speed railway on China’s inter-provincial knowledge spillovers.The study demonstrated the spatial distribution of China’s patents presents spatial agglomeration from 2008 to 2015,and the agglomeration is increasing,and the agglomeration gradually tends to be gentle after 2015.High-speed railway has a significant positive impact on inter-provincial knowledge spillovers in China,and the impact is increasing with the improvement of railway network.There is a certain distance limit for the impact of high-speed railway on the knowledge spillovers among provinces in China.Specifically,the distance limit for China’s high-speed railway in 2012 is 2096 kilometers,with the error range not exceeding 29 kilometers.In 2017,the effective limit distance is 2188 kilometers,with the error range not exceeding 63 kilometers.With the development of high-speed railway,the limit distance is expected to increase year by year.Based on the research conclusions,this study puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on reasonably promoting the coordinated promotion and balanced development of high-speed railway and knowledge spillovers.